3.1. Rural trends in the EU-15

• The decline in agricultural employment and in the relative economic importance of food production, accompanied by structural changes in the farming industry. As an example, in the early 1800s agriculture employed some 35% of the British labour force, by 1900 this had fallen to about 10%. Now the figure is less than 2%. Although some rural communities remain highly dependent on farming and related industries, the fact is that most of those living in rural areas now depend on other sources of income and employment.
• Associated structural changes in agriculture, including fewer farms and farmers, fewer and larger fields, greater specialisation and generally more intensive production. A dual structure persists - various estimates suggest that one-fifth of all farms produce four-fifths of our food, whilst most have other sources of family income (commonly off-farm jobs, but also a variety of on-farm diversified enterprises, or off-farm businesses and pensions). Research conducted in the 1980s and early 1990s showed that family farming survived better where there were well diversified surrounding labour markets [Bryden et al. 1994]. In the Mediterranean EU Member Countries, it is often a case that rural regions are highly dependent on particular agricultural products (e.g. olives, wine). A similar situation exists in some peripheral and mountainous rural areas in northern Europe, where production possibilities are limited (beef, sheep) and economic diversification has been problematic. This makes the position highly vulnerable to sudden changes in the agricultural support policies. However, the Italian example, where 75% of the farms are smaller than five hectares, shows that where alternative employment opportunities exist, regardless of growing competitiveness on agricultural markets, small farms will not disappear since their pluriactivity means a relatively lower dependence on policies, thus making them much less vulnerable to policy changes.
• Other labour market changes include the growth in the service sector, in some cases a relative or even absolute growth in manufacturing sector employment, as well as growth in female employment, casualisation, part-time employment, and frequently high unemployment. Closer inspection of different rural areas clearly shows that even in the most 'rural' regions, some have experienced growing employment whilst it has declined in others. Moreover, despite this relatively positive growth in rural employment, most rural areas within reasonable proximity of urban centres suffer an employment deficit, in that there is a net outflow of commuters from rural to urban areas [Bollman & Bryden 1997; OECD 1996].
• Tourism and recreation have been key rural growth areas. This and the desire of many urban people to live (and sometimes establish enterprises) in rural areas is linked to the notion that the countryside is increasingly a place of consumption as well as production, including consumption of non-material and non-tradable attributes and public goods which the countryside has - or is believed to have - in greater abundance than urban areas.
• The globalisation of many key elements in the economy, especially finance capital which is highly mobile, the exposure of these elements to increased competition, and the related restructuring of enterprises brings both threats and opportunities. There are opportunities to tap new markets worldwide, to develop new service based activities including knowledge and information based activities which are, in principle, less dependent on location as a result of the extension of markets and the introduction of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT). However, the threats to rural areas' existing activities, often based on natural resources and low-skill manufacturing, are also evident.
• Many rural areas (and enterprises) seek to protect themselves from increasing global competition by creating local products which depend on local identity for their market niche. Indeed, social and environmental capital can play an important role in emerging models of plural economy at micro-level. Local identity is often closely linked to (perceived or real) local cultures or environments, which in essence are non-tradable 'public goods' and can underpin new forms of rural competitiveness and, in some cases, new international market linkages. This does not of course deny the importance of more 'mobile' resources; rather it suggests that such mobile resources are more likely to remain in - or come to - a rural area which successfully develops its indigenous social, cultural and environmental capital.
• The introduction and spread of new technologies, especially ICT is also linked with processes of globalisation and restructuring. Some rural areas, such as the Highlands and Islands of Scotland, have tried to capitalise on the distance reducing effects of ICT, developing new information-based activities which depend on digital telecommunications. Others have sought to widen markets and capture a higher share of 'value-added', for example by using ICT to cut out 'middle-men' in distribution and retailing systems or by using the 'information highway' to market local goods and services directly to consumers and businesses.
• Rural areas normally experience demographic changes associated with the ageing of the population and which, when combined with the labour market changes, lead to increased dependency ratios, declining activity rates and less job-security. There is a fall in annual hours worked per person, an increase in self-employment and part-time working especially amongst women, as well as a rise in long-term unemployment. There is, at the same time, an increased opportunity for leisure and recreation and longer periods of retirement or lower activity, which often spill over into new demands on the countryside as mentioned earlier.
• Population deconcentration is perceivable in some countries in the form of population outflow from metropolitan areas. This is partly due to lifestyle choices, partly related to what Newby (1979) called 'the village in the mind', partly to housing costs, labour market changes, and partly to the perceived crisis of the urban life. The latter is linked to economic and social changes including increased crime, long-term unemployment and decay of urban public goods. Actually the rural and urban population movements and social changes are often inter-linked via a circular flow involving different social classes and age-groups.
• Personal mobility is constantly increasing. It includes commuting, tourism and recreation linked with the emergence of new ('consumption' related) uses for rural space, and new societal demands in relation to the land and landscape. Thus movements of people are a key aspect of rural change and development, and underpin many recent planning and other disputes in the countryside. In-migration, out-migration, retirement, the retention or loss of young people, the return of 'diaspora', commuting, recreation and tourism are all dimensions of this movement.
• The processes of economic change have resulted in the emergence of new winners and losers. The appearance and/or recognition of 'excluded groups' suffering from poverty and/or various other forms of 'deprivation' is a growing problem. Studies have demonstrated that poverty, deprivation and exclusion are as much rural as urban problems, although they take specific forms in rural areas. Reforms in social policies suggest that localities and regions will have to play a bigger role in this respect in future. The potential role of culture as a social inclusion factor in rural areas ought to be recognised.
• Environmentalism has emerged as a powerful ethic and political force. This has broadened into the sustainable development debate - the Brundtland ideas are now widely accepted even if the integration of environmental, economic and social sustainability is still disputed in practice.